Despite much speculation to the contrary, it appears as though Georgia will remain a red state in the 2008 Elections. Though record-breaking numbers of the state's African-American population have registered to vote to show their support for Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. John McCain still holds a 3.2 point lead in Georgia over the Democrat from Illinois. Of course, in a race this close, no one will be able to decisively determine how Georgia will delegate its electoral votes until the last ballot has been counted, and there are still potential pitfalls for the Republicans. For example, former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr is on the ballot as the Libertarian party's Presidential nominee. While it seems rather clear that a 3rd party candidate won't win this election, if Republicans in Barr's home state support him on election day, it could be enough to split the conservative vote and enable a win for Obama. The following chart from Pollster.com reveals just how rapidly McCain's lead has declined in Georgia.
Georgia's Senate race between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and challenger Democrat Jim Martin has been an extremely competitive one, with both sides airing vicious attack ads about the opposing candidate. In the end, however, it appears as though the state's Republican roots will hold strong. Though Chambliss only leads Martin by a 4 point margin according to pollster.com, that may be all he needs to retain his seat in the U.S. Senate.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
GA Volunteers Try One Last Push as Election Draws Closer and McCain's Lead Grows Smaller
The Atlanta Journal Constitution published an article today revealing the mounting pressure on volunteers in the state to get their candidate's message out on the weekend before Election Day:
The final push is on, and with early voting ending today, the emphasis shifts to Election Day Tuesday.
“Obama has a real shot to win in Georgia,” former U.S. Sen. Max Cleland said Thursday. “The race is closer than people think.”
The latest polls show the Obama-McCain race to be neck-and-neck — one poll showed McCain ahead by 1 point, another had him up by 5 but yet another had him down by 3. And while the race for Georgia’s 15 electoral votes is tight, neither side appears to be investing significant cash or resources to winning it in the final days. Neither campaign has announced visits by the candidates or their top surrogates. As of Thursday, neither had bought last-minute television advertising here.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Barr Predicts McCain Will Lose in Georgia
From Libertarian Candidate for President and former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr's website:
ATLANTA, GA – "Senator John McCain will not win Georgia," predicts Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party nominee for president. "His shrinking poll numbers are an indication that McCain is losing touch with the American public as we get closer to November 4th."
"Sen. McCain never connected with the fiscal conservatives in Georgia," says Barr. "His lack of a principled stand on issues such as reducing the size of government and cutting spending bothers Georgia voters. Sen. McCain can't say with a straight face he will not raise taxes or increase government spending, given his support for such extremely expensive federal government programs like the recent massive bailouts for Wall Street. Clearly, McCain has failed to attract the hearts and support of Georgia voters."
"Sen. Obama will not so much win Georgia, as Sen. McCain will lose the state," Barr adds.
"Georgia voters looking for a candidate who truly believes in limiting the size of government and reducing taxes should vote for Bob Barr and the Libertarian Party," says Barr.
Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr represented the 7th District of Georgia in the U. S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 2003. Barr's name will appear before 95 percent of Americans when the vote on Election Day – more than any other third-party or independent candidate.
ATLANTA, GA – "Senator John McCain will not win Georgia," predicts Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party nominee for president. "His shrinking poll numbers are an indication that McCain is losing touch with the American public as we get closer to November 4th."
"Sen. McCain never connected with the fiscal conservatives in Georgia," says Barr. "His lack of a principled stand on issues such as reducing the size of government and cutting spending bothers Georgia voters. Sen. McCain can't say with a straight face he will not raise taxes or increase government spending, given his support for such extremely expensive federal government programs like the recent massive bailouts for Wall Street. Clearly, McCain has failed to attract the hearts and support of Georgia voters."
"Sen. Obama will not so much win Georgia, as Sen. McCain will lose the state," Barr adds.
"Georgia voters looking for a candidate who truly believes in limiting the size of government and reducing taxes should vote for Bob Barr and the Libertarian Party," says Barr.
Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr represented the 7th District of Georgia in the U. S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 2003. Barr's name will appear before 95 percent of Americans when the vote on Election Day – more than any other third-party or independent candidate.
Monday, October 27, 2008
With Less than 10 Days to Go, will Georgia still vote Republican for President?
Though Real Clear Politics Averaging polls continue to show McCain leading by 5 points in Georgia, his margin over Sen. Obama seems to have decreased over the past 40 days. Liberal Blog The Daily Kos predicts the state may hold surprises in store for Election day, however, saying:
In one of the nastiest public races the state has seen for Senate, it appears Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss will emerge victorious over challenger Democrat Jim Martin, with RCP averages listing Chambliss with a narrow 2 point lead. RCP's assessment of the race includes this warning, however:
The coming week will reveal how these tight races will play out in the Peach State.
I have GA on the Obama list for a few reasons. The early voting is disproportionally African-American, relative to their population in the state. For the first time in a long time AA are registered and voting at or above average relative to their population nationally. Also, what I've read really suggests to me that the McCain ground game is weak in most places, particularly a place like GA where they thought they would be safe.
In one of the nastiest public races the state has seen for Senate, it appears Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss will emerge victorious over challenger Democrat Jim Martin, with RCP averages listing Chambliss with a narrow 2 point lead. RCP's assessment of the race includes this warning, however:
Chambliss and the state GOP are forced this year to work not only against the Democratic challenger, but also the vast voter registration drives of the Obama campaign, who had been targeting the state as a pick-up opportunity though pulled a lot of resources out of the state late in the campaign as it appeared winning Georgia would be a stretch.
The coming week will reveal how these tight races will play out in the Peach State.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Dems Still Counting Georgia as a Battleground According to Oct. 7 E-mail
The Atlanta-Journal Constitution reported today that Democrats still regard Georgia as being up for grabs in the 2008 Presidential Election, as evidenced by a new fund-raising video featuring Senator Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe.
In the clip, Plouffe comments, “You might have seen we’re now competing aggressively in the state of West Virginia, where we think we have a great chance to win. We’ve seen polls tightening in places like Georgia and North Dakota. So, we’re always on the lookout for expansion….”
This small but important statement holds greater meaning when combined with an email that was allegedly sent out by the Democratic National Committee on October 7, warning state volunteers to stay within their own boundaries. The excerpt of the email featured in the AJC article ends with the following statement:
Any further reports of volunteer requests aimed at another battleground will not be treated kindly. To avoid any confusion at all, Georgia, North Dakota, and most definitely Michigan are still battlegrounds.
In the clip, Plouffe comments, “You might have seen we’re now competing aggressively in the state of West Virginia, where we think we have a great chance to win. We’ve seen polls tightening in places like Georgia and North Dakota. So, we’re always on the lookout for expansion….”
This small but important statement holds greater meaning when combined with an email that was allegedly sent out by the Democratic National Committee on October 7, warning state volunteers to stay within their own boundaries. The excerpt of the email featured in the AJC article ends with the following statement:
Any further reports of volunteer requests aimed at another battleground will not be treated kindly. To avoid any confusion at all, Georgia, North Dakota, and most definitely Michigan are still battlegrounds.
Former U.S. Representative and Green Party Presidential Candidate Cynthia McKinney Makes a Campaign Stop in Her Home State
Green Presidential candidate and former US Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) made a campaign stop in Atlanta at an event hosted by DeKalb County Green Party and the International Action Center, on Saturday, October 18, 2008. The event, which was announced only a few days in advance, was attended by a crowd of about 50.
"I do believe the people do have the power. It is a power that is unused and unflexed and when we flex our muscles, we actually can win," McKinney said, according to a report by Matthew Cardinale, News Editor of The Atlanta Progressive News.
Click here to read Atlanta Progressive News' full coverage of the event.
"I do believe the people do have the power. It is a power that is unused and unflexed and when we flex our muscles, we actually can win," McKinney said, according to a report by Matthew Cardinale, News Editor of The Atlanta Progressive News.
Click here to read Atlanta Progressive News' full coverage of the event.
Obama Sides with Florida Over Georgia in a 30-year-long Water Dispute
According to the Associated Press, Senator Barack Obama released a statement on October 16 which said that during his presidency, he would make protecting Florida's Apalachicola River and Bay a priority. The Illinois senator is already calling for a National Research Council study to ensure enough water comes into Florida to meet environmental and commercial fishing needs.
The Apalachicola Bay is fed by the Chattahoochee River, metro Atlanta’s primary source of fluids. Florida law makers believe Georgia uses too much water from the river system for municipal purposes. So while some optimists might be inclined to view Senator Obama's recent and unfounded concern in this matter as stemming from genuine environmental concerns, it seems more likely to this realist that Obama is after the 27 electoral votes the swing state of Florida could afford him. Georgia's 15 electoral votes are almost sure to go to McCain, so siding with the state on this matter would present Obama with no help on election day.
It seems to follow, then, that Obama would rather see the more than 5 million Americans who call metro Atlanta home denied the most basic and essential life force of water than to lose the support of those Floridians who feel strongly enough about the issue to take notice. Is this even remotely logical? I think not. The veil of environmental awareness that Senator Obama used as a guise to cover what most certainly seems to be his true interest in the matter-the garnering of electoral votes from a large swing state-is wearing awfully thin.
Georgia's GOP quickly jumped on the issue, as GOP Senators Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson drafted the following letter to Senator Obama criticizing his sudden interest in and take on the matter:
Dear Senator Obama:
We are writing to express our disappointment with comments made yesterday by you and your campaign relating to water allocation issues in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins.
As you may know, these river basins serve Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. While we appreciate your recent and sudden interest in the tri-state water issues we have been working on for the past six years, the comments by you and your campaign reflect a fundamental lack of understanding of the nature of the problems in the ACF and ACT basins, a lack of understanding of the requirements of the Army Corps of Engineers with regards to the ACF and ACT basins under federal law, and a cavalier disregard for the needs of the residents of Georgia.
According to your campaign’s statement, you “would direct the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study to assess the water availability, supply options, and demand-management alternatives that factor into ACF River System usage, as well as the impact of freshwater flow on the ecology of the Apalachicola River and Bay.” You also said “As President, I will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority.”
As you may know, the Army Corps of Engineers is required under federal law to update the water control manuals for the ACF and ACT basins, and recently announced it would begin doing so in the ACT basin.
We were pleased to hear from Secretary of the Army Pete Geren personally that the Corps is moving forward with updating these manuals, because it will allow the Corps to make smarter decisions in their management of these river systems. We have underscored to him how important this action is.
As you also may know such an update would include studies to assess water supply and demand, and environmental management practices for ALL the users and stakeholder in the basins, not just those on the Apalachicola River and Bay. To ask the Corps to ignore its responsibilities under federal law in favor of the residents of Florida is a clear affront to the residents of Georgia. To state that you will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority over Georgia’s shows that you do not care about the needs of the people of Georgia.
We have continually worked to get Georgia, Florida and Alabama together and to force the Corp of Engineers to update a 20-year-old Water Control Plan for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basins. In 2006 we held Senate hearings in Gainesville and Columbus to implore the Corps to keep its commitment to update its outdated water control plan for the two river basins.
On August 1, 2007, we met with Secretary Geren as well as Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works John Paul Woodley, Lieutenant General Robert L. Van Antwerp and General Counsel Craig Schmauder. At the meeting, Secretary Geren indicated his desire to give mediation time to work before starting the update of the water control manuals.
When Secretary Geren gave his commitment to us that if and when mediation broke down and was not making progress, he would begin the update of the water control manuals, we held him to that promise. On September 28, 2007, after judges involved in the mediation announced that the talks had broken down, we sent a letter to Secretary Geren strongly urging him to honor his pledge to update the water control plan.
On October 18, 2007, Secretary Woodley told both of us by telephone that the Corps will start the process for updating the water control manual for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin.
We also facilitated meetings in Washington between the Governors of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, as well as meetings between the Governors and the Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne, and Council on Environmental Quality Chairman Jim Connaughton. We continue to work with the Governors and their staffs to come to a solution so the states can take advantage of the productive talks they have had and agree on a resolution.
From Lake Lanier to Lake Allatoona, from Atlanta to West Point Lake, and from LaGrange to Columbus, we have worked to find a solution that benefits not only the people of our state, but all those who reside in the river basins. It is unfortunate that you wish to undo the good work we have done to find a solution for all the people in the river basin and instead prioritize the needs of only the people of Florida.
Sincerely,
Saxby Chambliss
United States Senator
Johnny Isakson
United States Senator
The Apalachicola Bay is fed by the Chattahoochee River, metro Atlanta’s primary source of fluids. Florida law makers believe Georgia uses too much water from the river system for municipal purposes. So while some optimists might be inclined to view Senator Obama's recent and unfounded concern in this matter as stemming from genuine environmental concerns, it seems more likely to this realist that Obama is after the 27 electoral votes the swing state of Florida could afford him. Georgia's 15 electoral votes are almost sure to go to McCain, so siding with the state on this matter would present Obama with no help on election day.
It seems to follow, then, that Obama would rather see the more than 5 million Americans who call metro Atlanta home denied the most basic and essential life force of water than to lose the support of those Floridians who feel strongly enough about the issue to take notice. Is this even remotely logical? I think not. The veil of environmental awareness that Senator Obama used as a guise to cover what most certainly seems to be his true interest in the matter-the garnering of electoral votes from a large swing state-is wearing awfully thin.
Georgia's GOP quickly jumped on the issue, as GOP Senators Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson drafted the following letter to Senator Obama criticizing his sudden interest in and take on the matter:
Dear Senator Obama:
We are writing to express our disappointment with comments made yesterday by you and your campaign relating to water allocation issues in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins.
As you may know, these river basins serve Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. While we appreciate your recent and sudden interest in the tri-state water issues we have been working on for the past six years, the comments by you and your campaign reflect a fundamental lack of understanding of the nature of the problems in the ACF and ACT basins, a lack of understanding of the requirements of the Army Corps of Engineers with regards to the ACF and ACT basins under federal law, and a cavalier disregard for the needs of the residents of Georgia.
According to your campaign’s statement, you “would direct the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study to assess the water availability, supply options, and demand-management alternatives that factor into ACF River System usage, as well as the impact of freshwater flow on the ecology of the Apalachicola River and Bay.” You also said “As President, I will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority.”
As you may know, the Army Corps of Engineers is required under federal law to update the water control manuals for the ACF and ACT basins, and recently announced it would begin doing so in the ACT basin.
We were pleased to hear from Secretary of the Army Pete Geren personally that the Corps is moving forward with updating these manuals, because it will allow the Corps to make smarter decisions in their management of these river systems. We have underscored to him how important this action is.
As you also may know such an update would include studies to assess water supply and demand, and environmental management practices for ALL the users and stakeholder in the basins, not just those on the Apalachicola River and Bay. To ask the Corps to ignore its responsibilities under federal law in favor of the residents of Florida is a clear affront to the residents of Georgia. To state that you will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority over Georgia’s shows that you do not care about the needs of the people of Georgia.
We have continually worked to get Georgia, Florida and Alabama together and to force the Corp of Engineers to update a 20-year-old Water Control Plan for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basins. In 2006 we held Senate hearings in Gainesville and Columbus to implore the Corps to keep its commitment to update its outdated water control plan for the two river basins.
On August 1, 2007, we met with Secretary Geren as well as Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works John Paul Woodley, Lieutenant General Robert L. Van Antwerp and General Counsel Craig Schmauder. At the meeting, Secretary Geren indicated his desire to give mediation time to work before starting the update of the water control manuals.
When Secretary Geren gave his commitment to us that if and when mediation broke down and was not making progress, he would begin the update of the water control manuals, we held him to that promise. On September 28, 2007, after judges involved in the mediation announced that the talks had broken down, we sent a letter to Secretary Geren strongly urging him to honor his pledge to update the water control plan.
On October 18, 2007, Secretary Woodley told both of us by telephone that the Corps will start the process for updating the water control manual for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin.
We also facilitated meetings in Washington between the Governors of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, as well as meetings between the Governors and the Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne, and Council on Environmental Quality Chairman Jim Connaughton. We continue to work with the Governors and their staffs to come to a solution so the states can take advantage of the productive talks they have had and agree on a resolution.
From Lake Lanier to Lake Allatoona, from Atlanta to West Point Lake, and from LaGrange to Columbus, we have worked to find a solution that benefits not only the people of our state, but all those who reside in the river basins. It is unfortunate that you wish to undo the good work we have done to find a solution for all the people in the river basin and instead prioritize the needs of only the people of Florida.
Sincerely,
Saxby Chambliss
United States Senator
Johnny Isakson
United States Senator
Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn Leads State's Most Affluent Dems in Last-Minute Attempts for Obama Fund-Raising
Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn is leading a pack of the Peach State's most influential Democrats in a last-minute effort to bolster the Obama Victory Fund. Nunn sent out a letter last week to many of the state's affluent Obama supporters requesting donations in the amount of $5,000 to $30,000 (because the Obama Victory Fund opperates seperately from the Obama campaign, standard limits for contributions don't apply.) Among those who signed the letter were Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, Home Depot co-founder Arthur Blank and his wife, Stephanie, and one of Atlanta's favorite sons: Media mogul Ted Turner. Click here to read the letter as published by the AJC.
Barr, McCain, and Wall Street
Former Georgia congressman and Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr has been riding high on the tide of Republicans upset by McCain's support of the bailout, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
“We’re seeing an enormous amount of activity coming in from the web site, from people opposed to the bailout,” said Russ Verney, Barr's campaign manager, in an interview with the Georgia newspaper.
Many of those rallying behind Barr's cause are long-time Republicans who simply can't side with the party any longer, according to Verney. “They’ve had it, they’re coming over and they’re bringing their friends.”
Much of the website activity has been attributed to a low-budget but highly effective YouTube video Barr posted early this month criticizing the policies that led to the economic catastrophe as well as those inherent in the bailout. Watch for yourself below:
“We’re seeing an enormous amount of activity coming in from the web site, from people opposed to the bailout,” said Russ Verney, Barr's campaign manager, in an interview with the Georgia newspaper.
Many of those rallying behind Barr's cause are long-time Republicans who simply can't side with the party any longer, according to Verney. “They’ve had it, they’re coming over and they’re bringing their friends.”
Much of the website activity has been attributed to a low-budget but highly effective YouTube video Barr posted early this month criticizing the policies that led to the economic catastrophe as well as those inherent in the bailout. Watch for yourself below:
Native Georgian and Former President Slams Bush Administration for Economic Crisis
Former President and Native Georgian Jimmy Carter told foreign reporters the “atrocious economic policies” of the Bush administration had caused the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The 84-year-old Democrat, who served in the White House from 1977-1981 during a period of high inflation and energy crisis, told reporters while stopping in Brussels that “profligate spending,” massive borrowing and dramatic tax cuts since President George W. Bush took office in 2001 were behind the market turmoil and economic crisis.
Read the full report from Reuters here.
The 84-year-old Democrat, who served in the White House from 1977-1981 during a period of high inflation and energy crisis, told reporters while stopping in Brussels that “profligate spending,” massive borrowing and dramatic tax cuts since President George W. Bush took office in 2001 were behind the market turmoil and economic crisis.
Read the full report from Reuters here.
Chambliss Mirrors McCain's Post-Bailout Attempt to Focus on Energy
Apparently John McCain isn't the only Republican looking to win some points back for his party in the wake of the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street.
While the struggling economy has served as a sore spot for Republicans as Democrats continue to point the public eye to the policies of the Bush administration as the reason for our country's fiscal failure, the energy issue positions the GOP in a more favorable light (who could forget the chants of "Drill, baby, Drill!" that rose up from the crowd at last month's RNC?).
We've seen Senator John McCain struggle to pull the focus of his presidential debates with Senator Barack Obama towards the issue of alternative power sources to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and away from our current economic crisis. Now, just after a major gas shortage in the state of Georgia left many of its citizens without transportation, Republican Incumbant Senator Saxby Chambliss tries the same thing with a new series of television ads to air this week. Check out the example below.
While the struggling economy has served as a sore spot for Republicans as Democrats continue to point the public eye to the policies of the Bush administration as the reason for our country's fiscal failure, the energy issue positions the GOP in a more favorable light (who could forget the chants of "Drill, baby, Drill!" that rose up from the crowd at last month's RNC?).
We've seen Senator John McCain struggle to pull the focus of his presidential debates with Senator Barack Obama towards the issue of alternative power sources to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and away from our current economic crisis. Now, just after a major gas shortage in the state of Georgia left many of its citizens without transportation, Republican Incumbant Senator Saxby Chambliss tries the same thing with a new series of television ads to air this week. Check out the example below.
Georgia's GOP Representatives Split on the Bailout
Georgia's Republicans in Washington disagree over the recent passing of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, reports the Atlanta-Journal Constitution.
GOP Senators Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson voted in favor of the rescue plan, citing the fate of small businesses and the millions of 401(k)s that were at stake as legitimate enough reasons to necessitate the long-term drain on taxpayers.
The seven Republican congressmen representing Georgia in the House voted unanimously against the bailout, however, arguing that the United State's free-market economy could not be rescued by overruling the very principles that make up its core.
Senator Chambliss, who is locked in a very ugly and public political race against challenger Democrat Jim Martin, an attorney from Atlanta, appears to have put the most at stake by voting for the proposition in terms of his reelection. Martin has spoken out against the bailout, arguing it does little to support homeowners.
“So he’s in favor of sticking his head in the sand, allowing the stock market to tank like it did Monday,” Chambliss retorted, according to a story in the Macon Telegraph.
As Georgia's GOP apparently sided more with Martin in the House, it appears Chambliss is now taking inadvertant swings at his own team, destablilizing his base of support that will prove crucial in terms of his upcoming reelection.
GOP Senators Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson voted in favor of the rescue plan, citing the fate of small businesses and the millions of 401(k)s that were at stake as legitimate enough reasons to necessitate the long-term drain on taxpayers.
The seven Republican congressmen representing Georgia in the House voted unanimously against the bailout, however, arguing that the United State's free-market economy could not be rescued by overruling the very principles that make up its core.
Senator Chambliss, who is locked in a very ugly and public political race against challenger Democrat Jim Martin, an attorney from Atlanta, appears to have put the most at stake by voting for the proposition in terms of his reelection. Martin has spoken out against the bailout, arguing it does little to support homeowners.
“So he’s in favor of sticking his head in the sand, allowing the stock market to tank like it did Monday,” Chambliss retorted, according to a story in the Macon Telegraph.
As Georgia's GOP apparently sided more with Martin in the House, it appears Chambliss is now taking inadvertant swings at his own team, destablilizing his base of support that will prove crucial in terms of his upcoming reelection.
RNC in ATL 2012!...(or so Georgia Republicans are Hoping)
On Thursday, October 22, The Atlanta Journal Constitution broke the news that at the 2008 Republican National Convention held in St. Paul, MN, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine proposed in a speech to the Georgia delegation that Atlanta be the site of the next RNC in 2012. The delegation responded enthusiastically, and plans have been set in motion to ensure that the republicans make this issue a top priority following this year's November 4 election day.
The following letter, drafted by Maria Strollo Zack, the 2012 bid chairman, Rob Doll, first vice chair, and Mansell McCord, the Fifth District chair, was recently sent to members of the state committee, suggesting a Nov. 22 organizational meeting of a convention committee. It details the moves of those cities in competition for the honor of playing host to the 2012 RNC, and also makes a case for Atlanta as being superior to these based on the many strong Republican politicians who hail from the state of Georgia. It has been transcribed from the AJC's website.
GEORGIA 2012 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION BID COMMITTEE
Dear:
We are excited to announce the formation of the Georgia 2012 Republican National Convention Bid Committee. I wanted to give you an update:
The first meeting of the Committee will be Saturday November 22, 2008 from 10:00 am to 12:00 noon at the offices of McKenna Long & Aldridge, 303 Peachtree Street, NE, Suite 5300 Atlanta, GA 30308.
Anyone who wishes to serve on the 2012 Bid Committee is invited to attend. This committee will be exploring the possibility of Georgia submitting a bid. We need everyone involved who wishes to participate. No decisions have been made and the point of this meeting is to allow everyone an opportunity to contribute and provide leadership and input. Please RSVP to strollom@bellsouth.net by November 14th, so that we may plan accordingly. Should you have any questions, please call XXX-XXX-XXXX.
After Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine called for Atlanta to host the RNC in 2012 at the 2008 RNC in Minneapolis Minnesota, members of the party have unified behind this effort.
To avoid distractions from the 2008 campaign focus, the Committee will begin formally working after the November 2008 election. Commissioner Oxendine has committed to raise $50,000 by December 31st to provide initial seed money for the Committee and has invited his fellow statewide GOP elected officials and the US Congressional delegation to join him.
Georgia would not be in a position to bid for the 2012 RNC National Convention without the leadership of such pioneers as Bo Callaway, Mack Mattingly, John Linder, Newt Gingrich, Paul Coverdell, Billy Lovett, John Stuckey, Carolyn Meadows, Dot Burns, Linda Herren, Alec Poitivent and our state Chair Sue Everhart.
We have a united effort growing rapidly on this bid, and I want to thank all of you who have expressed an interest in helping. In the old days, our party could only rely on a few people to do the hard work. Today, we are blessed by those who successfully laid such a solid foundation strong enough to seriously bid and host a national convention.
Already Republicans in Arizona (Phoenix), Indiana (Indianapolis), Louisiana (New Orleans), and Texas (Dallas) are organized and moving forward with their 2012 bids. All these states have already formed committees - before the close of the 2008 election cycle. In fact, Arizona who is busy trying to elect their US Senator as President, is able to also focus on 2012. New Orleans has already earned the support of the Democrat Mayor, who sent an official delegation to Minnesota to observe and prepare for their bid. Indianapolis is hosting the 2012 Super Bowl and the Indiana state GOP is working with the business community - today - to do both the Super Bowl and the National Convention.
Although these states are working now for 2012, we can clearly offer a better opportunity through our resourcefulness, hard work and great state. We take a back seat to no state in our ability to both elect our candidates and prepare for 2012.
Sincerely,
Maria Strollo Zack
2012 Bid Chairman
Rob Doll
First Vice Chair
Georgia Republican Party
Mansell McCord
Fifth District Chair
Georgia Republican Party
The following letter, drafted by Maria Strollo Zack, the 2012 bid chairman, Rob Doll, first vice chair, and Mansell McCord, the Fifth District chair, was recently sent to members of the state committee, suggesting a Nov. 22 organizational meeting of a convention committee. It details the moves of those cities in competition for the honor of playing host to the 2012 RNC, and also makes a case for Atlanta as being superior to these based on the many strong Republican politicians who hail from the state of Georgia. It has been transcribed from the AJC's website.
GEORGIA 2012 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION BID COMMITTEE
Dear:
We are excited to announce the formation of the Georgia 2012 Republican National Convention Bid Committee. I wanted to give you an update:
The first meeting of the Committee will be Saturday November 22, 2008 from 10:00 am to 12:00 noon at the offices of McKenna Long & Aldridge, 303 Peachtree Street, NE, Suite 5300 Atlanta, GA 30308.
Anyone who wishes to serve on the 2012 Bid Committee is invited to attend. This committee will be exploring the possibility of Georgia submitting a bid. We need everyone involved who wishes to participate. No decisions have been made and the point of this meeting is to allow everyone an opportunity to contribute and provide leadership and input. Please RSVP to strollom@bellsouth.net by November 14th, so that we may plan accordingly. Should you have any questions, please call XXX-XXX-XXXX.
After Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine called for Atlanta to host the RNC in 2012 at the 2008 RNC in Minneapolis Minnesota, members of the party have unified behind this effort.
To avoid distractions from the 2008 campaign focus, the Committee will begin formally working after the November 2008 election. Commissioner Oxendine has committed to raise $50,000 by December 31st to provide initial seed money for the Committee and has invited his fellow statewide GOP elected officials and the US Congressional delegation to join him.
Georgia would not be in a position to bid for the 2012 RNC National Convention without the leadership of such pioneers as Bo Callaway, Mack Mattingly, John Linder, Newt Gingrich, Paul Coverdell, Billy Lovett, John Stuckey, Carolyn Meadows, Dot Burns, Linda Herren, Alec Poitivent and our state Chair Sue Everhart.
We have a united effort growing rapidly on this bid, and I want to thank all of you who have expressed an interest in helping. In the old days, our party could only rely on a few people to do the hard work. Today, we are blessed by those who successfully laid such a solid foundation strong enough to seriously bid and host a national convention.
Already Republicans in Arizona (Phoenix), Indiana (Indianapolis), Louisiana (New Orleans), and Texas (Dallas) are organized and moving forward with their 2012 bids. All these states have already formed committees - before the close of the 2008 election cycle. In fact, Arizona who is busy trying to elect their US Senator as President, is able to also focus on 2012. New Orleans has already earned the support of the Democrat Mayor, who sent an official delegation to Minnesota to observe and prepare for their bid. Indianapolis is hosting the 2012 Super Bowl and the Indiana state GOP is working with the business community - today - to do both the Super Bowl and the National Convention.
Although these states are working now for 2012, we can clearly offer a better opportunity through our resourcefulness, hard work and great state. We take a back seat to no state in our ability to both elect our candidates and prepare for 2012.
Sincerely,
Maria Strollo Zack
2012 Bid Chairman
Rob Doll
First Vice Chair
Georgia Republican Party
Mansell McCord
Fifth District Chair
Georgia Republican Party
Monday, October 6, 2008
Just How Red is Georgia, Really?
Reporting for the Atlanta-Journal Constitution on Friday, October 3, Aaron Gould Sheinin finds that 16 years ago, the state's coloring on the electoral map was quite a bit cooler...
State’s partisan shift to red trickled over time
By AARON GOULD SHEININ
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Friday, October 03, 2008
Sixteen years ago, Georgia was on the blueish side of purple, a state where voters went for a Democratic president, and the party controlled a preponderance of federal and state offices.
Today, Georgia is dirt red, with Republicans controlling the General Assembly and a majority of statewide and federal seats. And that November day in 1992 was the last time Georgia sent a Democrat to the White House.
The wholesale shift from Democrat to Republican was not a sudden change, a levee break, although there were days of deluge that contributed to the flood. And it was not all political, or, at least, not all ideological.
Some, Democrats mostly, believe the state could be in the early stages of a shift back the other way, based on population changes and a gradual morphing of ideology away from the social conservatism that once dominated the GOP. Only time will tell.
The state has changed in 16 years. It’s grown with gusto within the same borders in many, and varied, ways.
KEITH MASON, state flag issue hurt Democrats
Keith Mason was chief of staff to Zell Miller when the Democrat was elected governor in 1990 and helped Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992. Mason followed Clinton to Washington where he served as an aide to the president. Mason was a delegate to the Democratic National Convention in August.
“Georgia was one of the last Southern states to ever elect a Republican governor. Many of our Southern brethren had received the same type of demographic changes in terms of their growth that Georgia had experienced, i.e., North Carolina and Virginia in particular — and had elected Republicans. But the Republican Party for many years was basically inept. They began to turn that around, with Newt Gingrich and his rise in the House, but also Paul Coverdell’s leadership. The dam was leaking in ‘92, in ‘94, and it gushed over in 2002.”
The flag issue hurt. Miller tried to get the Confederate emblem off the state flag, but it was Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes, elected in 1998, who suffered most, losing to Perdue in 2002 in part, because of the flag.
He sees the state shifting again.
“Georgia was more Republican in its demographics in 1992 and ‘94, than it may actually be today and it maybe in 2010. It was more white. It was more conservative, and less urban. But our make up, the make-up of our elected officials, was Democratic. But they were not necessarily the Democrats of today and tomorrow.”
ERIC TANENBLATT, GOP ‘architects’ diligent
Eric Tanenblatt helped lead President George Bush’s re-election campaign in Georgia in 1992, was Sonny Perdue’s chief of staff and was a delegate to the Republican National Convention this year.
“1992 was a breakthrough year when things started to change.”
He credits former U.S. Sen. Mack Mattingly, who in 1980 became the first Georgia Republican elected to the Senate, former U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the late Paul Coverdell as being “the architects of the second party in the state.”
“They put a plan in place and the party just built the infrastructure and the grass roots throughout the ’80s.”
Tanenblatt says Bush would have won here in 1992 if it weren’t for Ross Perot. He’s likely right, as Democrat Bill Clinton won with less than 50 percent. Perot drew 13 percent.
“Traveling the state, people would describe themselves as ‘federal Republicans.’ But they wouldn’t call themselves Republicans because Democrats controlled the state for the most part. We knew it was just a matter of time. And it happened in 2002, when Sonny got elected. That really marked the demise of the Democratic Party as we know it.”
Republicans rose to power through better planning, better organizing — a better ground game.
“We were organized down to the precinct level where the Democrats were somewhat complacent. To our credit, we’ve continued to maintain that because we’ve seen the importance of it.”
State’s partisan shift to red trickled over time
By AARON GOULD SHEININ
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Friday, October 03, 2008
Sixteen years ago, Georgia was on the blueish side of purple, a state where voters went for a Democratic president, and the party controlled a preponderance of federal and state offices.
Today, Georgia is dirt red, with Republicans controlling the General Assembly and a majority of statewide and federal seats. And that November day in 1992 was the last time Georgia sent a Democrat to the White House.
The wholesale shift from Democrat to Republican was not a sudden change, a levee break, although there were days of deluge that contributed to the flood. And it was not all political, or, at least, not all ideological.
Some, Democrats mostly, believe the state could be in the early stages of a shift back the other way, based on population changes and a gradual morphing of ideology away from the social conservatism that once dominated the GOP. Only time will tell.
The state has changed in 16 years. It’s grown with gusto within the same borders in many, and varied, ways.
KEITH MASON, state flag issue hurt Democrats
Keith Mason was chief of staff to Zell Miller when the Democrat was elected governor in 1990 and helped Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992. Mason followed Clinton to Washington where he served as an aide to the president. Mason was a delegate to the Democratic National Convention in August.
“Georgia was one of the last Southern states to ever elect a Republican governor. Many of our Southern brethren had received the same type of demographic changes in terms of their growth that Georgia had experienced, i.e., North Carolina and Virginia in particular — and had elected Republicans. But the Republican Party for many years was basically inept. They began to turn that around, with Newt Gingrich and his rise in the House, but also Paul Coverdell’s leadership. The dam was leaking in ‘92, in ‘94, and it gushed over in 2002.”
The flag issue hurt. Miller tried to get the Confederate emblem off the state flag, but it was Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes, elected in 1998, who suffered most, losing to Perdue in 2002 in part, because of the flag.
He sees the state shifting again.
“Georgia was more Republican in its demographics in 1992 and ‘94, than it may actually be today and it maybe in 2010. It was more white. It was more conservative, and less urban. But our make up, the make-up of our elected officials, was Democratic. But they were not necessarily the Democrats of today and tomorrow.”
ERIC TANENBLATT, GOP ‘architects’ diligent
Eric Tanenblatt helped lead President George Bush’s re-election campaign in Georgia in 1992, was Sonny Perdue’s chief of staff and was a delegate to the Republican National Convention this year.
“1992 was a breakthrough year when things started to change.”
He credits former U.S. Sen. Mack Mattingly, who in 1980 became the first Georgia Republican elected to the Senate, former U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the late Paul Coverdell as being “the architects of the second party in the state.”
“They put a plan in place and the party just built the infrastructure and the grass roots throughout the ’80s.”
Tanenblatt says Bush would have won here in 1992 if it weren’t for Ross Perot. He’s likely right, as Democrat Bill Clinton won with less than 50 percent. Perot drew 13 percent.
“Traveling the state, people would describe themselves as ‘federal Republicans.’ But they wouldn’t call themselves Republicans because Democrats controlled the state for the most part. We knew it was just a matter of time. And it happened in 2002, when Sonny got elected. That really marked the demise of the Democratic Party as we know it.”
Republicans rose to power through better planning, better organizing — a better ground game.
“We were organized down to the precinct level where the Democrats were somewhat complacent. To our credit, we’ve continued to maintain that because we’ve seen the importance of it.”
Is Obama Winning Georgia Right Now?
Sports-writer slash political blogger Nate Silver posted an article this morning on his website, www.fivethirtyeight.com, indicating he believes that Georgia's fifteen electoral votes may well fall to Senator Barack Obama due to historic numbers of African-American voter turnout in the state. This prediction counters the latest Real Clear Politics average poll for Georgia, which still shows McCain leading by a solid margin of 8 points. Ed Kilgore of The Democratic Strategist responded to Silver's assertion, saying that while he doubts Obama will be able to steal Georgia from the Republicans, the trends exemplified in the state may have important implications for other battle-ground areas.
Monday, October 6, 2008
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
Perhaps the only happy consequence of the segregation era is that a number of Southern states like Georgia are required by the Voting Rights Act to keep statistics on registration and turnout by the race of the voter. Those statistics suggest that black voter registration is up materially from 2004.
Here are the numbers. In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia's active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent.
Now, that might not seem like all that big a difference. But suppose that the black vote is split 95/5 between Obama and McCain, and the nonblack vote is split 30/70. (Obama probably will not win 30 percent of the white vote. But since Georgia also contains material numbers of Hispanic and Asian voters, winning 30 percent of the nonblack vote is probably reasonable).
In 2004, also according to statistics from the Georgia Secretary of State, black voters made up 25.4 percent of election day turnout (this means that they participated at slightly lower rates than white voters). Applying those 95/5 and 30/70 voter splits to the 25.4 percent figure would work out to a 7.0-point win for John McCain, about where polls seem to have Georgia now.
Now suppose that black and nonblack voters each turn out at the same rates as they did in 2004, but that we account for the increase in black registration. According to our math, John McCain's 7.0-point lead is now cut to 4.9 points.
But that is probably too conservative an assumption. Newly-registered voters -- and nearly half of Georgia's newly-registered voters are black -- turn out at higher rates than previously registered voters. In addition, one would assume that the opportunity to vote for the first African-American nominee might be just a little bit of a motivating factor for black voters. Suppose that African-Americans represent 29.0 percent of Georgia's turnout, matching their share of active registrations. Using the splits we described above, McCain's lead is now cut to 2.3 points.
Even this, however, may be too conservative. For one thing, the registration window in Georgia is not yet over ... it concludes today. The statistics I cited above only reflected registrations through September 30. There is typically a surge of registrations in the final few days before the deadline. In 2004, Georgia's active voter rolls increased by about 150,000 persons in the first four days of October, before the registration deadline closed. That was more than they'd increased in the entire month of September.
So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia's registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain's advantage is a mere 1 point.
Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia's early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic , Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.
A related question is whether the pollsters are underrepresenting the black vote in their turnout estimates in states like Georgia. I think they might be. In their past two surveys of Georgia, SurveyUSA pegged black voter turnout at 25-26 percent. This is a pretty safe assumption, since it exactly matches the Secretary of State's turnout estimate from 2004. But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate.
Georgia is not quite a tipping-point state. In order to win it, Barack Obama will have to have made at least some inroads with Southern whites, and if he's done so, that will mean that he's won states like Virginia and North Carolina and won't need Georgia's electoral votes. But I'd guess that it represents a more plausible pickup opportunity for Obama than states like West Virginia and Montana, which are nominally closer in the polling. And if these black voter registration numbers are replicated throughout the South, Elizabeth Dole, Saxby Chambliss and Roger Wicker could all face tough re-election battles, substantially increasing the Democrats' chances of winning 60 Senate seats.
Monday, October 6, 2008
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
Perhaps the only happy consequence of the segregation era is that a number of Southern states like Georgia are required by the Voting Rights Act to keep statistics on registration and turnout by the race of the voter. Those statistics suggest that black voter registration is up materially from 2004.
Here are the numbers. In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia's active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent.
Now, that might not seem like all that big a difference. But suppose that the black vote is split 95/5 between Obama and McCain, and the nonblack vote is split 30/70. (Obama probably will not win 30 percent of the white vote. But since Georgia also contains material numbers of Hispanic and Asian voters, winning 30 percent of the nonblack vote is probably reasonable).
In 2004, also according to statistics from the Georgia Secretary of State, black voters made up 25.4 percent of election day turnout (this means that they participated at slightly lower rates than white voters). Applying those 95/5 and 30/70 voter splits to the 25.4 percent figure would work out to a 7.0-point win for John McCain, about where polls seem to have Georgia now.
Now suppose that black and nonblack voters each turn out at the same rates as they did in 2004, but that we account for the increase in black registration. According to our math, John McCain's 7.0-point lead is now cut to 4.9 points.
But that is probably too conservative an assumption. Newly-registered voters -- and nearly half of Georgia's newly-registered voters are black -- turn out at higher rates than previously registered voters. In addition, one would assume that the opportunity to vote for the first African-American nominee might be just a little bit of a motivating factor for black voters. Suppose that African-Americans represent 29.0 percent of Georgia's turnout, matching their share of active registrations. Using the splits we described above, McCain's lead is now cut to 2.3 points.
Even this, however, may be too conservative. For one thing, the registration window in Georgia is not yet over ... it concludes today. The statistics I cited above only reflected registrations through September 30. There is typically a surge of registrations in the final few days before the deadline. In 2004, Georgia's active voter rolls increased by about 150,000 persons in the first four days of October, before the registration deadline closed. That was more than they'd increased in the entire month of September.
So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia's registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain's advantage is a mere 1 point.
Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia's early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic , Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.
A related question is whether the pollsters are underrepresenting the black vote in their turnout estimates in states like Georgia. I think they might be. In their past two surveys of Georgia, SurveyUSA pegged black voter turnout at 25-26 percent. This is a pretty safe assumption, since it exactly matches the Secretary of State's turnout estimate from 2004. But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate.
Georgia is not quite a tipping-point state. In order to win it, Barack Obama will have to have made at least some inroads with Southern whites, and if he's done so, that will mean that he's won states like Virginia and North Carolina and won't need Georgia's electoral votes. But I'd guess that it represents a more plausible pickup opportunity for Obama than states like West Virginia and Montana, which are nominally closer in the polling. And if these black voter registration numbers are replicated throughout the South, Elizabeth Dole, Saxby Chambliss and Roger Wicker could all face tough re-election battles, substantially increasing the Democrats' chances of winning 60 Senate seats.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Early Voting in DeKalb County
Early voting a hit with DeKalb voters
By DAVID SIMPSON and APRIL HUNT
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Early voters continued to stream into DeKalb’s voter registration office Wednesday, joining 4,567 county residents who cast their general election ballots in the first two days of the week.
Monday’s opening day of early voting at the Memorial Drive office attracted about 1,550 voters, and that number was nearly doubled Tuesday, according to figures provided by the voting office.
The two-day total represented about 1 percent of DeKalb’s registered voters — 430,458 as of Sept. 2.
Wednesday’s voting began slower, but activity was picking up by mid-morning, said spokeswoman Mary Frances Weeks.
Voters reported waiting in line 30 to 40 minutes on Tuesday.
“It was real smooth,” Nathaniel Lowery reported after spending most of his lunch hour at the DeKalb voter registration office.
Lowery, a regular voter, said he expected a big turnout on Nov. 4. He said he came early “to get things moving. This economy needs to get things done.”
Early voter Alvin Majette said he also votes regularly, but the conversations he hears on the job at Jackson Security convinced him a huge turnout is coming.
“I think you’ll get people voting who never voted before,” he said.
Jim and Carole Stradley voted early so they can devote themselves to other voters on Election Day, when they will be poll workers at Idlewood Elementary School.
Asked if he thinks the work will be hard at the polls, Jim Stradley said, “I hope it’s real hard. … I think we’re looking at 75 to 80 percent [turnout].”
This is the first time in Georgia that voters could cast their ballots at the elections office without needing a reason to vote absentee. Officials hope early voting will spur turnout and keep lines short on Nov. 4.
By DAVID SIMPSON and APRIL HUNT
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Early voters continued to stream into DeKalb’s voter registration office Wednesday, joining 4,567 county residents who cast their general election ballots in the first two days of the week.
Monday’s opening day of early voting at the Memorial Drive office attracted about 1,550 voters, and that number was nearly doubled Tuesday, according to figures provided by the voting office.
The two-day total represented about 1 percent of DeKalb’s registered voters — 430,458 as of Sept. 2.
Wednesday’s voting began slower, but activity was picking up by mid-morning, said spokeswoman Mary Frances Weeks.
Voters reported waiting in line 30 to 40 minutes on Tuesday.
“It was real smooth,” Nathaniel Lowery reported after spending most of his lunch hour at the DeKalb voter registration office.
Lowery, a regular voter, said he expected a big turnout on Nov. 4. He said he came early “to get things moving. This economy needs to get things done.”
Early voter Alvin Majette said he also votes regularly, but the conversations he hears on the job at Jackson Security convinced him a huge turnout is coming.
“I think you’ll get people voting who never voted before,” he said.
Jim and Carole Stradley voted early so they can devote themselves to other voters on Election Day, when they will be poll workers at Idlewood Elementary School.
Asked if he thinks the work will be hard at the polls, Jim Stradley said, “I hope it’s real hard. … I think we’re looking at 75 to 80 percent [turnout].”
This is the first time in Georgia that voters could cast their ballots at the elections office without needing a reason to vote absentee. Officials hope early voting will spur turnout and keep lines short on Nov. 4.
Atlanta Agency Reports Increase in Middle-Class Debt
More in middle class seeking help with debt
Average income of those getting credit counseling is on the rise, Atlanta agency reports
By KEVIN DUFFY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
More middle-class Americans are suffering financial pain and reaching out for help, according to new numbers from the Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Atlanta.
The average annual household income of people who contacted CCCS last month was $49,308, an 18 percent increase over August 2007.
That’s “an amount far above historic levels for people seeking this service,” CCCS reported. The agency counsels people from all over the country.
“Rising unemployment, the continuing mortgage and credit crisis, and rising food and fuel costs are causing people with good incomes to seek help paying their debt,” CCCS president Suzanne Boas said.
“People with middle-class incomes are finding it more and more difficult to meet their financial obligations. Pay as you go is a rude awakening.”
During the first eight months of the year, CCCS conducted more than 37,000 budget and debt counseling sessions, a 39 percent increase over the same period last year, the agency said.
“No one’s immune from the broader decline in the financial markets,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist with Moody’s Economy.com. “Very little is going right for consumers. There’s little doubt we’re in a recession.”
In August, unemployment hit 6.1 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 12 months, with most of the increase coming during the past four months. The credit counseling figures are a reflection of that change, according to Dorsey Farr, a principal at French Wolf & Farr, an Atlanta-based investment adviser.
“What you’re seeing is the impact of job loss over the last eight or nine months translating into credit problems. It’s catching up with folks who are higher income earners,” Farr said.
Sweet said the CCCS figures indicate to him that a greater proportion of those seeking help are homeowners instead of renters. And many homeowners are taking a drubbing in the financial markets, adding to their woes, he said.
Michael Reksulak, assistant professor of economics at Georgia Southern University, said some seeking counseling might be individuals who took on adjustable-rate mortgages a few years ago and are reeling as the loans ratchet upward while their wages stagnate.
“There are very rational people who said ‘this makes sense for me’” when they agreed to the loans, Reksulak said. “But if they try to refinance in the current situation and they have a blot on their credit report, that’s a problem. They couldn’t see this coming.”
Homeowners also are having a tougher time accessing home-equity lines of credit as home values plummet and bankers exercise greater caution. “This is limiting another source of income for the already-strained household,” Sweet said.
So credit cards balances and other expenses, instead of being paid down, are growing beyond the scope of manageability.
The average monthly housing cost for those who contacted CCCS in August was $1,423, a 25 percent increase compared to the same month in 2007.
Additionally, food and fuel costs went up to $638 last month, which is 20 percent higher than in January, the agency reported. “While people seeking help paid less for fuel in August than July, the amount spent on food continues to climb,” CCCS says.
Average income of those getting credit counseling is on the rise, Atlanta agency reports
By KEVIN DUFFY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
More middle-class Americans are suffering financial pain and reaching out for help, according to new numbers from the Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Atlanta.
The average annual household income of people who contacted CCCS last month was $49,308, an 18 percent increase over August 2007.
That’s “an amount far above historic levels for people seeking this service,” CCCS reported. The agency counsels people from all over the country.
“Rising unemployment, the continuing mortgage and credit crisis, and rising food and fuel costs are causing people with good incomes to seek help paying their debt,” CCCS president Suzanne Boas said.
“People with middle-class incomes are finding it more and more difficult to meet their financial obligations. Pay as you go is a rude awakening.”
During the first eight months of the year, CCCS conducted more than 37,000 budget and debt counseling sessions, a 39 percent increase over the same period last year, the agency said.
“No one’s immune from the broader decline in the financial markets,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist with Moody’s Economy.com. “Very little is going right for consumers. There’s little doubt we’re in a recession.”
In August, unemployment hit 6.1 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 12 months, with most of the increase coming during the past four months. The credit counseling figures are a reflection of that change, according to Dorsey Farr, a principal at French Wolf & Farr, an Atlanta-based investment adviser.
“What you’re seeing is the impact of job loss over the last eight or nine months translating into credit problems. It’s catching up with folks who are higher income earners,” Farr said.
Sweet said the CCCS figures indicate to him that a greater proportion of those seeking help are homeowners instead of renters. And many homeowners are taking a drubbing in the financial markets, adding to their woes, he said.
Michael Reksulak, assistant professor of economics at Georgia Southern University, said some seeking counseling might be individuals who took on adjustable-rate mortgages a few years ago and are reeling as the loans ratchet upward while their wages stagnate.
“There are very rational people who said ‘this makes sense for me’” when they agreed to the loans, Reksulak said. “But if they try to refinance in the current situation and they have a blot on their credit report, that’s a problem. They couldn’t see this coming.”
Homeowners also are having a tougher time accessing home-equity lines of credit as home values plummet and bankers exercise greater caution. “This is limiting another source of income for the already-strained household,” Sweet said.
So credit cards balances and other expenses, instead of being paid down, are growing beyond the scope of manageability.
The average monthly housing cost for those who contacted CCCS in August was $1,423, a 25 percent increase compared to the same month in 2007.
Additionally, food and fuel costs went up to $638 last month, which is 20 percent higher than in January, the agency reported. “While people seeking help paid less for fuel in August than July, the amount spent on food continues to climb,” CCCS says.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Georgia Almost Secured for McCain at 50 Days Out Mark
On September 11, 2008, Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama put aside their party politics to observe the 7-year anniversary of the tragic terrorists attacks on the World Trade Center. On the same day, Senator McCain's ratings among Georgia voters seem to have secured the state's electoral votes for the Republican candidate for President of the United States. Though polls have shown that Georgia has been considered "leaning" towards McCain for some time, political analysts agree that state statistics gathered on Sep. 11, 2008 reflect a solid likelihood the state will once again be red on the electoral map.
According to Real Clear Politics averaging poll, McCain shows a 13.4 lead over Senator Obama in Georgia, with 53.7 percent of the vote as opposed to Obama's 40.3. Unless the state's current political direction does a 180 degree turn in the next 50 days, it appears the state's 15 electoral votes (increased from 12 to 13 in 1992, and from 13 to 15 in 2004) will go to the Republicans.
The state has voted Republican in the past six Presidential elections, with the exception of the 1992 Presidential race when it favored Democrats Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Al Gore to George H. Bush and running mate Dan Quayle by an extremely small margin-43.5% to 42.9%. In the past two elections, the state has voted in strong favor of President George W. Bush and his running mate, Dick Cheney with a 16.6 lead over Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards in 2004, and an 11.7 lead over Former Vice President Al Gore and his running mate Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2000.
In the Georgia's primaries, Sen. Obama showed a strong lead above his fellow democrats winning 66% of the vote, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 31% and Sen. John Edwards with only 2%. The state's preference for a Republican candidate was far less clear, with the vote being split fairly evenly between Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 34%, Senator McCain with 32%, and Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts coming in at a close third with 30%.
Other current and recent political races in the state support the finding that the state will more than likely vote Republican for its part when choosing the next President of the United States in November. In the current Senate race, Georgia voters favor Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss to Democrat Jim Martin 53.5% to 36.7%. In the 2006 election of the state's Governor, Georgia voters elected Republican Sonny Perdue with 53% of the vote, a 15 point lead over Democrat Jim Taylor with 38%.
According to Real Clear Politics averaging poll, McCain shows a 13.4 lead over Senator Obama in Georgia, with 53.7 percent of the vote as opposed to Obama's 40.3. Unless the state's current political direction does a 180 degree turn in the next 50 days, it appears the state's 15 electoral votes (increased from 12 to 13 in 1992, and from 13 to 15 in 2004) will go to the Republicans.
The state has voted Republican in the past six Presidential elections, with the exception of the 1992 Presidential race when it favored Democrats Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Al Gore to George H. Bush and running mate Dan Quayle by an extremely small margin-43.5% to 42.9%. In the past two elections, the state has voted in strong favor of President George W. Bush and his running mate, Dick Cheney with a 16.6 lead over Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards in 2004, and an 11.7 lead over Former Vice President Al Gore and his running mate Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2000.
In the Georgia's primaries, Sen. Obama showed a strong lead above his fellow democrats winning 66% of the vote, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 31% and Sen. John Edwards with only 2%. The state's preference for a Republican candidate was far less clear, with the vote being split fairly evenly between Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 34%, Senator McCain with 32%, and Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts coming in at a close third with 30%.
Other current and recent political races in the state support the finding that the state will more than likely vote Republican for its part when choosing the next President of the United States in November. In the current Senate race, Georgia voters favor Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss to Democrat Jim Martin 53.5% to 36.7%. In the 2006 election of the state's Governor, Georgia voters elected Republican Sonny Perdue with 53% of the vote, a 15 point lead over Democrat Jim Taylor with 38%.
A Brief Political History of Georgia
Georgia, one of the original 13 colonies, entered the Union in January 1788. The state has participated in every presidential election except 1864 (due to secession). From 1868 thru 1960, the state was as “blue” as can be – voting Democratic in every election. Like many other southern states, its residents were conservative Democrats that went “red” in 1964 in response to unhappiness over the Civil Rights Act, which was effectively exploited by the Republicans in a tactic called the “southern strategy.” In 1968, Georgia voted for Independent George Wallace in an election that marked the last time a third-party candidate received any electoral votes. Georgia has been reliably Republican since, except when a southern Democrat was on the ticket – Georgians sided with homegrown Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992. In 2004, George Bush easily defeated John Kerry by 58% to 41%. Georgia’s population has grown rapidly in recent years, and the state will likely gain an electoral vote in 2012, based on the outcome of the 2010 census.
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